California Centrists?

Some preliminary lessons from California's upcoming election to replace Gov. Gray Davis:

1. The two apparent front runners, Lt. Gov. Cruz Bustamante and actor Arnold Schwarzenegger are probably too moderate to win a primary election among their respective parties' core voters. Bustamante may be too pragmatic and insufficiently anti-business for California's left. Schwarzenegger is probably too moderate on social issues to satisfy the religious and cultural right. Maybe this weird election will have a silver lining, showing that many voters gravitate toward moderates not usually seen on the ballot.

2. California's decision to gerrymander the district boundaries of state representatives -- Republicans into safe conservative districts and Democrats into safe liberal districts -- is a recipe for dysfunctional government. Now, Gov. Davis is beset by unyielding Democratic liberals opposed to spending cuts and GOP conservatives unwilling to raise taxes even a teeny bit. Why should they compromise? Safe-seat representatives don't face reelection challenges from the other party. They only fear primary challenges from within their own party, usually from "wingnuts" on the far fringes of the political debate. However, if the districts instead included varying types of voters, candidates would be forced toward moderation, centrist ideas, and compromise. California's budget problems would probably still be bad. But voters' anger might be have been damped if they thought their representatives and governor were trying harder to find bipartisan solutions.

3. California voters are upset with Gov. Davis for not candidly explaining the impending budget problems during the previous campaign. Soon, the federal budget may face a scenario like California's: structural deficits that require tax hikes and spending cuts to fix. Gov. Davis downplayed the budget problem, hoping the state economy would improve and solve the problem. President Bush has not downplayed the national economy's troubles, but the Administration has consistently argued that federal deficits don't matter. What if it turns out they do matter? What will happen if it becomes clear to voters that deficits are threatening future economic growth, perhaps not this year but next year, or in 2005? President Bush has time to level with Americans about the likelihood of future budget problems. He could learn from the political problems faced by California's governor.

Posted by Jeff Lemieux at August 18, 2003 06:22 PM